Toby Gerhart 2014 Fantasy Outlook
The Jacksonville Jaguars signed former Minnesota Vikings running back Toby Gerhart off the open market earlier this offseason. It’s now getting to be quite clear exactly how they plan on using him.
While some have been a little skeptical to this point about his potential role with the team, the writing on the wall is getting louder and louder: Gerhart is going to be their work horse.
Translation: it might be high time people start taking him more serious as a legit option in fantasy football leagues.
But just how legit? Per USA Today, Gerhart will officially get “the bulk of the carries”. In Jacksonville’s Seattle Seahawk-mirroring run-heavy offensive system, that could potentially mean around 300 or more carries in Gerhart’s first season with the team.
Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley, a former coordinator in Jacksonville, has slowly been building up the Jags in his own image, which is clearly a rendition of his former Seahawks team.
That’s nothing but a good thing in general terms, while Gerhart’s new role in that plan could be awesome for his 2014 fantasy value.
Specifically, Jacksonville was high on Gerhart due to the similarities he had with Seahawks lead runner, Marshawn Lynch. While Gerhart isn’t quite as explosive as Lynch, he has all of the other major qualities he possesses, such as a physical running style, blocking ability and the soft hands to be a consistent receiver out of the back-field.
More importantly, Gerhart runs with a mean streak and fights for extra yardage. Jacksonville especially loved Gerhart in this area of the game, citing Gerhart’s 3.8 yards after contact average of a year ago.
Gerhart’s rushing sample size hasn’t been ample (only 36 carries a year ago), but he’s been quite impressive when toting the ball. In fact, he carries a very impressive 4.7 yards per carry average through his four-year career.
On top of all of that, Gerhart is probably mentally ready to lay out some punishment. After sitting behind Adrian Peterson for the past four years, he’ll enter 2014 with truly fresh legs and with his eyes on proving he is truly a starting caliber running back.
There is certainly risk involved in drafting Gerhart. He does play on the Jaguars, after all, while their passing offense doesn’t offer much help to sway defenses away from keying in on the ground game. We also can’t say for certain how Gerhart will handle such an expanded role, or if he’ll be as effective with more touches as he was with so few.
Fantasy football is largely about the end result of opportunity and talent coming together, however, and there is certainly a lot of upside to consider with Gerhart. Consider him a mid-level RB2 in fantasy leagues for 2014, and you shouldn’t come away disappointed. In fact, he just might exceed expectations.
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