NFL Betting Could Change With New Extra Point Rule
The NFL just made a move that could change everything. Beginning in 2015, extra points will now be attempted from the 15-yard line, rather than the two. A normally extremely easy “point after touchdown” will now be a fairly botchable 33-yard field goal attempt. The point? To shake things up a bit.
With pro football eyeing more scoring and the increasing of competition, pushing extra points back should beg teams to simply go for more two-point conversions. It suddenly puts a greater emphasis on players and teams that specifically are quite good are converting two-point conversions (which will remain at the two-yard line) and also puts a greater emphasis on having a kicker that doesn’t miss chip shots.
The funny thing here is that a 19-yard field goal (which is what extra points were) is a true chip shot. Extra points were such a chip shot, in fact, that NFL kickers had gotten to the point where they were consistently converting on roughly 99% of them. This change doesn’t necessarily mean games will get insanely more interesting, but they might. In 2014, over 95% of kicks within 30-35 yards were converted. That’s pretty staggering, but two key points need to be addressed: that’s not including the many extra opportunities via extra points that could be added into the mix (which will happen this year) and it’s still a solid 4% drop from a ridiculous 99% conversion rate.
No, we don’t want to kill the souls of every kicker out there, but making a difficult job a little harder might be good for the sport. It doesn’t mean the NFL is trying to sabotage kickers, but the extra point as we knew it was basically a total given. You knew that, quite literally, 9.99999 times out of 10, that extra point was going to be good. Very rarely have we seen NFL games decided by an extra point miss. In 2015, we have a 4% increase, at the very minimum, that we just might.
Does this rule change shake the NFL to it’s core? No, but it matters at least a little. NFL kickers are already very good and don’t miss short field goals that much, but considering 1,187 touchdowns were scored in 2014, that gives kickers potentially 1,187 more chances to shank 33-yarders. That doesn’t mean we’ll see multiple 33-yard missed extra points per game, but it surely means we’ll be seeing a lot more than we currently do. It also means we could see some games decided by a missed extra point or some teams opting to just go for two.
The two point conversion is another change the NFL has attacked, as two-point conversion turnovers can now be returned for two points. Finally, right?
These changes put more pressure on the kicker, but reward the teams with strong kickers. They also add value for players like Tim Tebow, who has the ability to run or throw and give defenses something to think about on two-point conversions. Perhaps that is what Chip Kelly had planned, all along.
Regardless of what happens with the extra points and two-point conversions, it’s nice to see the NFL proactive in improving their game. Then again, as cool as these changes could be, they could be equally disastrous for those conducting NFL betting. Imagine having a win in the bag and then see Tim Tebow plow in from two to destroy your line, or lose it all because the ever reliable Justin Tucker botches an extra point. Those possibilities didn’t exist a year ago, and now they do. Bet accordingly.
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