NFC North Odds: Does Jordy Nelson Injury Doom Packers?
The Green Bay Packers were the top pick to win the Super Bowl in 2015. They still might be, but with star #1 wide receiver Jordy Nelson done for the year with a torn ACL, the confidence NFL bettors have in them could be wavering. And if Green Bay is on high alert to be a shaky bet to win it all in 2015, they could potentially be in danger of losing their firm grip on the NFC North, as well.
Right? Maybe. Only maybe.
The reality is the Packers are quite good and they’re well built with strong depth just about everyone – especially wide receiver. While replacing Nelson with one guy is a joke of a task, Green Bay has three very talented wide receivers ready to chip in via Davante Adams, rookie Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis. Adams could actually be ready to produce on an elite level, while the team still has the shifty Randall Cobb operating out of the slot. In two receiver sets, the Packers shouldn’t see much of a drop off. The real question will be when they go three and/or four wide. Instead of having Adams as that insane mismatch at the three spot, they now have either Montgomery or Janis. Can either of them step up and be as much of a problem as Adams was at times when teams found a way to contain Nelson or Cobb? There’s the rub.
As good as the Packers are, and as strong as their odds remain (-275) to repeat as NFC North champs, we still need to consider the real possibility that a huge player going down drowns this team. Nelson could just be the first piece to fall, too. If more injuries come, the Packers could suddenly go from Super Bowl lock to missing out on the playoffs.
That’s not the greatest bet, but let’s play the “what if” game, shall we? If the Packers do falter (and hey, even if they don’t), who in the NFC North is a serious threat to challenge them for the top spot? Is it the Detroit Lions, who almost did just that in 2014? Is it the Minnesota Vikings with a pissed off Adrian Peterson breathing down Green Bay’s neck? Or is it Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears, who are happily left for dead and just waiting for the perfect time to pounce on the division?
Detroit (+500) and Minnesota (+500) have the same odds to win the NFC North, and probably rightfully so. One was just so close a year ago, yet lost Ndamukong Suh and may not have the defensive bite that made them such a pain in the ass. The other has a rising defense, gets it’s other worldly rusher back and could have a star in the making in Teddy Bridgewater. Picking between the two is next to impossible.
But with those odds and nothing really screaming “this one will win!”, why even waste time on it? Instead, let’s look at that dying Bears team that has insanely bad odds (+1400) by comparison, yet strangely may not be as bad off as you think. John Fox took over (he pretty much wins everywhere) and is holding people accountable and enforcing stability and balance. The once paltry defense is switching to a 3-4 scheme which, true, they don’t have the pieces for yet, but change is better than continued disaster. And while they lost Brandon Marshall, they also got rid of a distraction and if rookie stud receiver Kevin White can hit the field in the second half of the year, they’ll have his replacement.
The Bears probably aren’t winning the division. They might not come close. Jay Cutler has a long history of turnovers and a bad attitude. Their defense is abysmal. And John Fox can’t fix everything in one season. But at this point they’re a fun bet and with the Lions and Vikings not necessarily “obviously” being worlds ahead of them, they’re not the craziest bet, either.
Green Bay is going to win this division in the end. They’re the logical and safe bet. Tsunamis of injury and poor play would have to hit the Frozen Tundra for that to change. But if you’re not picking Green Bay, roll the dice on Chicago. The payout would be oh, so sweet and they surely do have that “caution be damned” feel to them.
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