2011 NFL Week 2 Picks and Predictions
The first week of the NFL season is now in books, while a small win, those following my plays last week managed to go 3-2 for +0.62 units. Oddly enough, the only line that was hard to get after I made my picks was a play that lost, so some of my followers might have done even better, if you skipped out on the late addition teaser. Anyways… never one to complain about a winning week, I’m happy – and, just today made three great wagers I’m very excited about for Week 2.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
To cover the elephant in the room first, many who bet on sports do so recreationally, and I think any normal human being would feel hesitancy towards taking advantage of the death of someone’s parent. So I feel obligated to cover this topic. While Brian Urlacher likely won’t practice this week – chances are great he will play. He’s veteran, a leader, in shape and his team will rally around him. There is no reason at all to feel this will have a significant effect on the outcome of the game. I’m sincerely saddened to hear about his loss.
Now with that situation now covered, I love the Saints in this game, but it’s for other reasons. First of all this is their home opener, Drew Breese is coming off an MVP performance in a game that other than an early mistake, the Saints played well but lost. The Saints should be more than focused coming into this game. Also they’ve had 10 days to prepare, where the Bears have had 7. The Bears are also heading on the road after a blowout victory as an underdog – that’s a situation where teams haven’t fared well in the past. Anyways for this game all the intangibles that are difficult to cap as a science all point New Orleans Saints. So with that my bet this week is Saints -6.5 -110 which I made @ www.betonline.com.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
A rule in sports betting is to never pay to close of attention to what you saw last week. Things change in the NFL greatly week to week, and what you though you saw isn’t always what you saw. However, the Vikings offense was HORRIBLE last week. Other than a Harvin 103 yard return for a TD and a huge break out play by Peterson, these guys wouldn’t have scored all but maybe 6-10 points. The Buccs as well, they scored 20 points last week but one was a 56 yard pick-6, and the other a late TD against a prevent defense. If not for garbage time and the lucky pick-6 we’re talking a very small number of points.
Again though – Don’t pay attention too much to last week – UNLESS the market is doing so in reverse. In my opinion that’s the case here. Every method I use to cap this game has the total around 39, and I haven’t made any adjustments for the fact the kick off takes place at the 35 yard line this season. In my opinion this is a strong indication the market is inflated. So with that I’m took Buccs/Vikings u42 -110, a bet which I just placed at www.bodog.com.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
I’ll tell ya – I’ve gone-don-den-been tough on head coach Mike Shanahan for most his career. However, this guy got rid of two household names in Donovan Mcnabb and Albert Haynesworth and gave himself a team he’s capable of coaching. Like him or not the Redskins are coming into this game 1-0 as are their opponents the Arizona Cardinals. A coach in the zone, and home field advantage, I was curious enough to start breaking this game down further. Lucky for me I got a total time saver when I found www.5dimes.com had the line shaded to -3 -130 (most other betting sites have them at -3.5). Knowing 5Dimes offers 2-team 6-point “ties win” NFL teasers at -105, teasing the Redskins here is massive +EV. I’m effectively getting Redskins +3.5 -252. FULLY crossing both threes at solid odds, this is a great bet.
So in order to take this bet I needed to find a solid line to match it up with. My choice was the Detroit Lions who 5Dimes had listed at -9. Now my ticket reads Lions -3, but considering ties win, my effective odds are -2.5. The reason this was a great second leg: The Lions no-vig moneyline is -311 which gives them a 75.7% no-vig win probability. From here I’m able to calculate that home favorites of -4 to -9 lose by either one or two points about 4.1% of the time. So my expected win rate is about 71.6%. Remember my effective odds per team on a 2-team teaser at -105 are -252 which has an implied probability of 71.6%. As you can see the EV of this second leg is dead even. Considering a bet with significant expected value mixed with a bet of neutral expected value, still has significant expected value, this in my strong opinion is a +EV teaser bet.
So my wager: Redskins +3.5 / Lions -2.5 @ -105.
To recap, my three 2011 NFL Week 2 Bets are:
- Saints -6.5 -110 @ BetOnline
- Buccs/Vikings u42 -110 @ Bodog
- Redskins +3.5 / Lions -2.5 -105 @ 5Dimes
Note: I risked between 1.05 units to 1.10 units to win 1 unit for each.
As always check the comments later in the week where I might add additional plays. This and good luck with your 2011 NFL Week 2 wagers.