2011 NFL Week 1 Predictions and Betting Picks
The 2011 NFL Season kicks off on September 8, 2011 @ 8PM with the New Orleans Saints visiting the defending champion Green Bay Packers. This is of the course the first game of the week where bettors will be looking for picks and predictions.
I’ll get to that game in just moment, but first let me mention –this post is the first of 20 weekly ones I’ll be making here at NFLBetting.net – my home for the 2011 NFL football season. I’m coming off a record last season of 64-38 (62.7%) and this season I will again be posting every bet I place seconds after I make it. Be sure to check back here often. With that out the way, let me now cover the wagers I’ve made so far for 2011 NFL week 1.
2011 NFL Season Open: Saints @ Packers
There’s a stat floating around betting forums that teams coming off a Super Bowl victory fail to cover the spread about 55% of the time during weeks 1-6. The theory here is motivation factor – teams that won the Super Bowl are less motivated the following season, where teams who didn’t get a chance to play in it are all geared up to take on champions. Even though I don’t buy into systems like this one, I decided to take a quick look at the Week 1-6 “against the point-spread” records of teams who won the Super Bowl the year following.
2006 Steelers 2-3
2007 Colts 3-2
2008 Giants 3-2
2009 Steelers 1-5
2010 Saints 1-4-1
There is certainly a trend here, but is the trend variance, or is it market inefficiency? It has to be one or the other, and no matter which it is… it is going to correct itself in time, so I can’t see putting too much stock in that trend alone. However, if I was going to bet on the point spread, I’d still likely take the Saints at +4.5 -110 which is currently available at Bookmaker.eu and JustBet.com. For anyone liking the Packers, right now Packers -4.0 -110 is available at popular US friendly sportsbook www.betonline.com. Me personally I passed on the point spread and looked to the total.
The betting total on this game is 47 at almost all sportsbooks, with the exception right now www.betonline.com where it’s listed a 47.5. Personally I love the under in this game so that’s the bet I made – Saints @ Packers u47.5 -110 1.1 units to win 1.0 units. Now of course, most people are looking at this game between two of the league’s most explosive offenses and saying it has high scoring written all over it. The factor I think the market hasn’t adjusted for enough is these two teams had serious issues last season on defense, the Packers due to injury and the Saints partially due to injury but also do being an offensive focused team, for most of last season.
The Packers defense is healthy, they’re well-built to contain the Saints and Brees has to deal with one of the league’s best secondaries Clay Mathews. The Saints are also a different team with an improved backfield thanks to the addition of Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. While the air attack is still their primary weapon, they certainly have more ground options this season. To sum it up quickly, 47.5 is a massive total for a season opener; even with two high powered offenses. I think the market is giving too much focus to last season’s results and not enough adjustments for the actual teams that will be taking the field.
My Pick: Saints @ Packers u47.5 -110 1.1 units to win 1.0 units
Sunday September 11, 2011 NFL Week 1 Picks
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The biggest game at 1PM is the Steelers @ Ravens and honestly this one is tough game to handicap. The Baltimore Ravens are a near entirely different team with Derrick Mason, Willis McGahee (not to mention Todd Heap, Le’Ron McClain, and NT Kelly Gregg) all replaced with some impressive additions. The Steelers on the other hand are running their mouth about a new and improved pass-first offense they’ll debut this season – but on the defensive side of the ball there are uncertainties with Troy Polamalu’s health.
Without giving up the rice bowl I’ll say I have these two teams in a near dead heat on the power rankings with all players healthy. Considering the game is in Baltimore and the Steelers are the team with the defensive question marks I have the Ravens at about a 3.1 favorite in this game. I’ll admit, I’m a bit weary with the adjustments I’ve made, but before looking at the line this is where I had. With www.betonline.com currently offering Ravens -2.5 -105 which is far better than the odds on other sites, I went with my math over my head and took Ravens -2.5 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
My Wager: Ravens -2.5 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
To me this is the most interesting game of the week. The Detroit Lions are coming off their best seasons in past decade, and did so using their second and third string quarterbacks for most of the season. With only a 6-10 record it might not look much but considering they became the NFL’s first 0-16 team in 2008, and then went 2-14 in 2009, that’s quite an improvement. This year they’ve made some additions – perhaps not enough on defense, but no doubt the defense should be improved and the offense has both key additions and plethora of returning young talent that should be well matured.
The Bucs are similarly situated coming off a shocking 10-win season with young talent as well. QB Josh Freeman is suddenly being talked about as top caliber QB and his young weapons in Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn should be improved with a year of experience now under their belt. Now on the other side of the ball, the Bucs have traditionally been known as a defensive team, but with the loss of leading tackler Barrett Ruud and Ronde Barber now aged, mixed with their pass rushing struggles from last season this is certainly void coming into this season.
I’m expecting this game to go one of two ways. Detroit gets out the fast start and wins the game outright with the Buccs falling just short of late comeback – or this is a close chess match game from the beginning neither team ever leading by a considerable margin. As far as betting goes – I’m going to use the Lions in a teaser taking them to +7.5.
Needing a team to match the Lions with I scanned the board for the line with the most value and found Houston Texans range from -400 to -425 on the moneyline depending which sportsbook we’re looking at. This is a solid basic strategy teaser leg, and the one I used to make my wager.
My Bet: 2 Team 6-Point NFL Teaser: Texans -2 and Lions +7.5 @ Bookmaker.eu
Recapping Wager Made at Time of this Post:
- Saints/Packers u47.5 1.1u to win 1.0u
- Ravens -2.5 1.05u to win 1.0u
- Teaser: Texans -2 Lions +7.5 1.1u to win 1.0u
Note: be sure to check the comments of this thread throughout the week. If I make additional bets they’ll be posted here seconds after I make them. Thanks and good luck with your NFL week 1 picks.