2016 NFL Predictions: Who Will Win the AFC West? |

2016 NFL Predictions: Who Will Win the AFC West?

The AFC West has been run by the Denver Broncos for a while now. Actually, it’s been five seasons in a row. That’s right, Denver won the division back in 2011 with Tim Tebow, then replaced him with Peyton Manning and rattled off four more division titles.

Every great run has an expiration date, so with Denver winning the Super Bowl last year and Manning retiring, it’s fair to wonder if their awesome five-year streak is finally coming to an end.

You could go either way with the logic. Manning is gone and the passing game could suffer, but he wasn’t very good in his final season and the Broncos still won the division and a league title. There is an argument there that Mark Sanchez or rookie passer Paxton Lynch can slide in and be just as good en route to another stellar season.

There is also the thought of someone else taking this opportune time to jump up over Denver and give the AFC West a different champ for the first time since 2010.

Let’s break down all four teams and ponder the possibilities as we consider the 2016 AFC West division odds, per Bovada:

Denver Broncos (+190)

Denver is the easy favorite to Vegas, as they’re the defending champs, still boast arguably the best defense in the league and we’ve yet to see anyone seriously threaten them inside the division. That being said, this might be one of the toughest sells when it comes to division leading favorites, seeing as the Broncos do have some off field issues with star cornerback Aqib Talib and currently do not have much of an answer under center.

Denver has enough offensive help around the quarterback position to perhaps get by, but is it enough to win an increasingly competitive division? That’s tough to see, especially if Mark Sanchez – the human turnover machine – is the guy who wins the job. Raw rookie Paxton Lynch would promote more upside for the offense and may give the Broncos their best shot. Of course, one way or another, there is a ton of pressure on the defense to be as good – if not better – than they were a season ago. And if Talib isn’t around to help that cause, Denver could be in trouble.

Kansas City Chiefs (+220)

KC is undoubtedly the next team up for consideration, as they were a bit of a monster after week six last year and will be getting a hopefully healthy Jamaal Charles back. Their defense and a methodical offense paved the way to a brilliant second half in 2015, one that culminated in a massive first round playoff win over the Texans and a fairly competitive second round loss to the Patriots.

The question is if the Chiefs maxed out their potential by merely winning one playoff game, or if there is somewhere to go here. With Alex Smith under center, the answer is likely closer to the former than the latter, but a healthy Charles still makes this a dynamic offense and Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin give Kansas City the balance they need to really compete with anyone. Should Kansas City’s top shelf defense stay true in 2016, this could be a nasty team no one wants to mess with.

Andy Reid teams have a history of being pretty darn good during the regular season and flaming out a bit in the playoffs, so there is every reason to buy into KC possibly winning the AFC West. We’re not saying they’re title contenders. They just need to stave off the Raiders and Chargers and finally leap-frog a Broncos team that very well could be in for some regression.

Oakland Raiders (+220)

Oakland is the clear wild card in the AFC West, as they share the same division odds as the Chiefs, yet don’t feel nearly as much as a sure thing. They start off 2016 on the road against the Saints, and it’s fair to say we might get a really good idea of who they are in that game specifically.

Can Derek Carr and Amari Cooper keep building their chemistry and be even better than they were a year ago? Is Latavius Murray the real deal at running back? Is this the year Khalil Mack and co. push Oakland’s improving defense to an elite level?

Those are the three big questions, while the Raiders beating their AFC West brethren (most notably Denver) and taking care of business on the road also remain obvious obstacles. Vegas likes their odds, clearly, but it’s fair to wonder if Oakland is ready for that leap or if they’re once again just a flashy pretender.

San Diego Chargers (+650)

If you’re looking for a logical AFC West bet and want a massive return, why not pull the trigger on the Chargers? There is still plenty to like in San Diego, as Philip Rivers runs a very potent passing attack that still has Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead and will get Keenan Allen back at full strength.

It’s the running game and defense that is questionable for the Bolts, as second-year rusher Melvin Gordon’s development is still up in the air and the Chargers lost a serious team leader with safety Eric Weddle fleeing to Baltimore in free agency.

Add in a contract issue with first round rookie Joey Bosa, and San Diego’s defense can’t possibly be an elite unit in 2016. That could very well hold them back, but the Chargers still have the coaching and passing game to make some noise. With Denver possibly sagging and Oakland and KC perhaps not up to the challenge, there is still some room for San Diego to make a play for the top spot. Their insane odds at least make a cursory bet worth while.

AFC West Prediction

Realistically, the Broncos are probably dropping down a peg or two, San Diego isn’t balanced enough to be taken seriously and the Raiders have a lot to prove. That makes KC the main target, as they present solid odds potential when it comes to your payout and they have already gotten close to pushing the Broncos off the ledge the past few years. This is the year they finally do it, while Denver isn’t quite 100% from top to bottom. Oakland having the same odds makes them a less attractive bet, but if those odds dip before the season, give Oakland a glance. Again, for pure upside, the Chargers are also in play.