NFL Picks For the Conference Championship Round |

NFL Picks For the Conference Championship Round

Everyone will be talking about “the non-catch” all week. It’s a hot topic and deserves to be talked about, but at the end of the day Dez Bryant and the Dallas Cowboys are back home and the Green Bay Packers get to move on to Seattle. There are just four teams left in this year’s NFL playoffs, and we all have no choice but to move on.

And move on, we shall. Last week we picked the Packers, Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos straight up, as well as Denver and Seattle to cover and Dallas and Baltimore to beat the spread. We went 3-1 straight up for the second week in a row, but just 2-2 against the spread. Picking the Panthers to beat the spread in Seattle was bold, but we’ll take the lump delivered by Peyton Manning and co. showing up with almost nothing at home against the Colts.

Overall, it was a solid week, but depending on what side of the fence you were on, it could have been a tad ugly. We have another awesome week of pro football playoff action upon us, so let’s dig into both matchups and try to get both of the picks right:

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks -7.5)

It’s to the surprise of no one that Seattle opens the week at the favorite with a 7.5 line, but it’s worth debating if they’ll be all over the Packers like they were back in week one in a 36-16 romp. The only problem is that it was actually just 17-10 at the break, and Green Bay kept it close until late in the third quarter when things just started falling apart.

The 12th Man was alive and well in Seattle’s Divisional Round win over the Panthers last week, but Green Bay is a much more dangerous team offensively – especially if Aaron Rodgers (calf) is any closer to full strength. Rodgers looked rather immobile last week, but still carved the Cowboys up for over 300 passing yards and three scores. Green Bay’s defense was also solid last week, giving up just 21 points to a pretty darn good Dallas offense.

The reality is this game could be a blowout in favor of the Seahawks, or it could go down to the wire like the matchup we saw two years ago that resulted with the “Fail Mary”. These teams don’t like each other and Seattle has a ton of pride. Rodgers pointed to Green Bay being hungrier this year than in past year’s, while the Packers could easily learn from their week one mistakes to take down the Seahawks.

If Green Bay is going to accomplish what sort of seems like the impossible, they’ll have to get Eddie Lacy going early and often. Green Bay looked ready to smash the Seahawks in the mouth with the running game right away in week one, but a Lacy fumble quickly put that to bed. Lacy and the rest of the Packers need to execute and take care of the football. They also can’t take an entire side of the field away, which means challenging Richard Sherman more than a few times is an absolute must.

Ultimately, it’s going to be extremely tough for the Packers to win this game. Even if it were in Lambeau, it’d be tough given Russell Wilson’s ability to escape pressure, Marshawn Lynch’s ability to run through defenders and Seattle’s defense being so strong. Add in the road factor and Rodgers’ calf issue, and Green Bay probably isn’t coming away with the win. I do think they beat the spread, though.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 23

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (Patriots -7)

Andrew Luck got his Colts past one legend and in the AFC title game he’ll try to make it two in a row. Tom Brady and the Patriots await in Foxboro, ready to reach the Super Bowl yet again (it’d be lucky number six for Brady). Luck naturally has plans of his own, but he looked lost in a loss to the Patriots in the playoffs last year and he and Indy didn’t fare much better when they lost 42-20 to these very Patriots back in November, either.

Indianapolis used Seattle’s blueprint to beat the Broncos last week, but it’s unclear if they have a design in place to dismantle Brady on the road. Due to the Colts not being great against the run, though, dismantling Brady might not even be the issue. Last year LeGarrette Blount pounded the rock at will en route to a big win, and the writing on the wall suggests New England could try to do the same again this weekend. If that happens, New England could sustain control of the clock, as well as the tempo of this game. On the flip-side, the Pats have one of the top corners in the game in Darrelle Revis, so Luck going nuts through the air may not happen.

Are the Colts really prepared to win two straight low-scoring, defensive road battles? Odds say no. New England has a current 7-point line and I think they cover it.

Pick: Patriots 30, Colts 20